Left side is the play. Right side is how often we think it hits. That number is our model’s probability pulled partway toward the book’s own implied number, so it is not raw model output.
The card is ranked by edge, not by percentage: how far our number sits above what the price implies. A 68% play at -240 has no edge, because -240 already implies about 70%. Nothing priced past -175 makes the card.
Max 5 plays a day and 3 per board, so a play that clears the bar can still miss on a busy day.
The parlay builder shows each leg’s probability across every market, including alt lines, totals and home runs we don’t back straight. So a builder leg can show a higher number than anything here and still not be a Top Play. The builder shows how likely a leg is. Top Plays shows where the price is wrong.
Postseason numbers run lower on purpose: starters go shorter and lineups are the best nine every inning.